Copper and Other Metal Resources in the Philippines — Copper, Chromite, Iron, Manganese, Zinc and Lead, Molybdenum, Cobalt
0. Three-line summary
- The Philippines is often described as having "the world's 4th-largest copper reserves," but in terms of mine production it ranks only 28th in the world (2023, BGS). Always check exactly which metric is behind a "ranking" claim.
- The country's only copper smelter, PASAR (Isabel, Leyte), halted operations in February 2025. The Philippines has reverted entirely to a structure of "exporting concentrate and importing refined metal."
- Entering 2026, two developments that will shape the next decade are underway: a corporate restructuring around Tampakan (consolidation into Dominion Holdings) and a delayed startup at Silangan.
1. How to read "mineral resource numbers" — the essential first step
This is the area where Japanese-language articles contain the most errors. Do not conflate the following.
1-1. "Reserves," "resources," and "endowment" are different concepts 注
| Term | English | Meaning | Who publishes it |
|---|---|---|---|
| Reserves | Reserves / Ore Reserves | The portion proven to be economically mineable, under stated price assumptions | Companies (signed off by a qualified/competent person) |
| Resources | Resources / Mineral Resources | The amount reasonably estimated to exist; economic viability not yet established | Companies |
| Endowment | Endowment / Potential | The amount geologically thought to be "likely present"; not backed by a feasibility study | Government / research institutions |
注 The "X billion tons of copper" figures published by the Philippine government (MGB) or investment-promotion materials are almost always endowment- or resource-based. They should not be compared on the same footing as a company's JORC or NI 43-101 reserve figures.
1-2. Differences in reporting standards
| Category | Example | Nature of reliability |
|---|---|---|
| NI 43-101 (Canada) | King-king (St. Augustine, TSX-listed) | Signed off by a qualified person; regulated |
| JORC (Australia) | Tampakan's estimate as of 2004, etc. | Same as above |
| Government estimates | MGB/DENR's "1.45–14.5 billion ton" figures | Often lacking published definitions or cutoff grades |
| Industry / investment-promotion claims | "$1 trillion in undeveloped mineral resources" | Estimates dating from 2018 or earlier are still being carried forward into 2026 materials |
1-3. Always check the metric behind any "world's Nth" claim
Even for the same metal, "copper," the ranking by ore tonnage, by contained-metal content, by the value of reserves, and by production volume are all completely different things.
| Metric | The Philippines' position | Source / year |
|---|---|---|
| Copper reserves "4th largest in the world" | Widely circulated in government and law-firm guides | Source could not be identified; 注 original citation unconfirmed |
| Copper mine production (metal content) | 28th, at 61,629 t (about 0.27% of the world total of 22.98 million t) | British Geological Survey (BGS), "World Mineral Production 2019–2023" (2023 figures, published 2025) |
| Nickel mine production | 2nd in the world (9.5% of the world total) | USGS (2024) |
| Cobalt mine production | 7th in the world (about 1.0%) | USGS (2024) |
注 A common set of claims — "copper is 4th in the world, nickel 5th, gold 3rd, chromite 6th" — is standard in Philippine domestic media and government materials but does not match USGS or BGS statistics. It is often explained as an "ore-tonnage-based endowment ranking," but the basis for the calculation could not be confirmed as of this writing (unconfirmed). When introducing this in Japanese, it should always be noted as "a claim made by the Philippine government."
2. Copper: the actual scale
2-1. Official statistics (Philippine Statistics Authority, PSA, "Mineral Accounts")
Within the SNA (System of National Accounts) framework, the PSA publishes annual figures for Class A reserves — commercially recoverable reserves backed by concrete development plans or actual operations. This is the most clearly defined "reserves" figure available for the Philippines.
| Item (Class A) | 2025 | Year-on-year | Source |
|---|---|---|---|
| Copper reserves | 4.14 million MT | −1.1% (2024: 4.18 million MT) | PSA Mineral Accounts (published June 2026) |
| Monetary value of copper reserves | ₱60.50 billion | +0.2% | Same |
| Copper mined | 46,080 MT | −13.3% | Same |
| Nickel reserves | 632.79 million DMT | −4.5% | Same |
| Chromite reserves | 66.29 million MT | −0.1% | Same |
| Gold reserves | 371,260 kg | −4.9% | Same |
| Combined value of gold, copper, nickel, and chromite | ₱588.12 billion | +17.6% (2024: ₱500.20 billion) | Same |
| Resource rent of the 4 resources | ₱68.25 billion (0.24% of GDP) | — | Same |
注 The PSA's Class A copper reserve figure is "4.14 million tons." This is three orders of magnitude different from the "1.14 billion tons" or "4.41 billion tons" figures commonly seen in investment-promotion materials. The former is thought to be on a commercial-reserve, metal-content basis, and the latter an ore-based endowment figure. Citing this without checking the unit and definition leads to a serious error.
2-2. Production trends (MGB statistics)
MGB (Mines and Geosciences Bureau) publishes copper concentrate in DMT (dry metric tons). Note that this is not on a metal-content basis.
| Period | Copper concentrate production | Year-on-year | Production value | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan–Sep 2024 (revised) | 200,806 DMT | — | — | MGB |
| Jan–Sep 2025 | 185,135 DMT | −7.8% | ₱20.296 billion (−1.0%) | MGB (reported December 2025) |
| Jan–Mar 2026 | 47,920 DMT | −19.4% | ₱6.36 billion (−7.4%) | MGB (reported June 2026) |
Volume peaked in 2024 and has since declined. On the other hand, since copper prices are at record highs, the decline in value has been much less severe than the decline in volume. This is the basic dynamic of the Philippine copper sector in 2025–2026.
For reference, total metallic mineral production value was ₱219.742 billion (+14.8%) in Jan–Sep 2025, and ₱82.78 billion (+28.6%) in Jan–Mar 2026 (both MGB). The driver has been gold, not copper.
注 Two different figures circulate for full-year 2024: "total mining production value of ₱316.29 billion" (Chambers Global Practice Guides, "Mining 2026," citing MGB) versus "metallic mineral production value of ₱252.9 billion." The former is understood to include non-metallic minerals and mining overall, and the latter metals only, but the source materials do not explicitly state this distinction (unconfirmed).
(Reinforced in the 2026-08-25 cross-check) This reading holds up arithmetically. If gold's 2023 figure of ₱106.64 billion was "42.82% of total metals" (per the "Major Gold Mines and Production" field article, §1-1), total metals would be about ₱249.0 billion. Metals for Jan–Sep 2025 came to ₱219.74 billion (versus ₱191.42 billion in the same period the year before); annualized, 2024 full-year metals would be in the ₱250-billion range. If ₱316.29 billion is treated as "metals," gold's 2024 figure of ₱126.36 billion would represent only about 40% of the total, which does not match MGB's own account that "gold accounted for roughly half of metals and took the lead in 2024." The field articles "Gold Reserves and Deposits" §3-3 and "Rare Earths and Strategic Minerals" §5 had previously labeled ₱316.29 billion as "metallic mineral production value" in an earlier version; this was corrected on the same day.
2-3. Global market context (2025–2026)
| Indicator | Value | Date / source |
|---|---|---|
| World copper mine production | 22.973 million t (2024) → 23.189 million t (2025) | ICSG |
| 2026 supply-demand balance | A shortfall of 150,000 tons (assessed as the first structural deficit since 2009) | ICSG |
| LME copper 3-month, all-time high | US$14,527.50/t (January 29, 2026) | LME / press reports |
| LME copper, spot | US$14,455/t (August 6, 2026) → US$14,290/t (August 10) | LME / press reports |
| 2025 annual price change | About +41% (the largest gain since 2009) | Press reports (December 2025) |
| 2026 full-year average forecast | US$12,075/t | JPMorgan (mid-2026) |
3. Major copper mines and projects
| Name | Location | Operator | Status (August 2026) | Scale |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Toledo/Carmen mine | Toledo City, Cebu | Carmen Copper (a wholly-owned subsidiary of Atlas Consolidated) | Operating; final stage of redevelopment | The country's largest open-pit copper mine; 1,674 ha |
| Padcal | Tuba, Benguet | Philex Mining | Operating (mine life through end-2028) | Its 68th year of operation. Copper-gold |
| Didipio | Kasibu, Nueva Vizcaya | OceanaGold Philippines (80% interest) | Operating | 2025: 90,700 oz gold, 13,300 t copper |
| Silangan | Tubod, Surigao del Norte | Silangan Mindanao Mining (100% Philex) | Final construction stage; startup delayed | Full scale: 12,000 t/day = 4 million t/year |
| Tampakan | South Cotabato | Sagittarius Mines (SMI) | Undeveloped. Under corporate restructuring; production target 2028 | Planned: 375,000 t copper, 360,000 oz gold per year |
| King-king | Pantukan, Davao de Oro | Kingking Mining Corp. | At the DFS stage (target completion Q4 2026) | Initial capex $2.37 billion |
3-1. Toledo/Carmen mine (Carmen Copper Corporation, Atlas Consolidated)
- Located in Toledo City, Cebu. Collectively called the "Toledo copper mine," comprising the Carmen, Lutopan, and Biga ore bodies. Mining claim area of 1,674 ha (Atlas's total landholding is 5,218 ha). MPSA No. 210-2005-VII (Carmen) and others.
- Undergoing a 3-year redevelopment program, targeted for completion by mid-2026 (some reports say Q3 2025).
- Q1 2025: copper concentrate of 26,000 DMT (down 19% year-on-year). Despite this, higher metal prices pushed net income to ₱645 million (versus a net loss of ₱404 million in the same quarter the year before) (Atlas disclosure/press reports).
- In August 2025, a 4.99 MW floating solar array (3 ha) began operating on the Malubog reservoir within the mining claim, supplying about 10% of the site's power needs, with a plan to expand to as much as 50 MW (Atlas announcement; the Philippines' first such installation).
- Its export destinations are smelters in China, Japan, and South Korea. In addition to copper concentrate, it treats gold and silver as major by-products, and is pursuing commercialization of molybdenum, magnetite, and pyrite (Atlas's 2024 Integrated Report).
- 注 Atlas issued a statement regarding November 2025's Typhoon Tino (international name Kalmaegi) and the flooding it caused in Cebu, which could affect operations. A quantitative impact could not be confirmed.
3-2. Padcal (Philex Mining)
- Located in Tuba, Benguet. MPSA No. 276-2009-CAR. Began operating in 1958, making 2026 its 68th year — one of the country's oldest mines.
- In December 2024, its mine life was extended by one year, from end-2027 to end-2028. This came from recovering pillars at the 760ML level and crediting recoveries above 100% from existing drawpoints toward additional recoverable reserves. Employment for its 1,879 workers continues (Philex announcement).
- 注 In Q1 2026, processed ore volume fell 42% due to a structural failure in the secondary/tertiary crushing plant. Philex posted a core net loss of ₱281 million and a consolidated loss of ₱592 million. Repairs have since been completed, and the company says it can sustain operations for the rest of 2026 (Philex disclosure/press reports).
3-3. Didipio (OceanaGold)
| Item | 2025 actual | 2026 guidance |
|---|---|---|
| Gold | 90,700 oz | 85,000–105,000 oz |
| Copper | 13,300 t | 13,000–15,000 t |
| AISC | Slightly above the top of guidance | — |
- A technical report filed in 2026 extended the mine life through 2037, based solely on year-end-2025 mineral reserves at a US$2,200/oz gold price assumption (OceanaGold).
- Its ownership interest has been 80% since May 13, 2024 (the remaining 20% of the local holding company was listed on the Philippine Stock Exchange).
3-4. Silangan (Philex) — the country's first planned copper cathode production
- Located in Tubod, Surigao del Norte. Comprises the Boyongan, Bayugo, and Kalayaan ore bodies. Operated by Silangan Mindanao Mining (SMMCI, 100% owned by Philex).
- The product will be "copper cathode + gold doré," not copper concentrate. Producing cathode directly from ROM ore via leaching would be a first for the Philippines. BOI registration grants a 6-year income tax holiday on copper cathode revenue (extendable by 2 years under certain conditions).
- Production plan: Phase 1 at Boyongan begins with an initial 2,000 t/day → 12,000 t/day (4 million t/year) by year 12. 注The mid-stage figures differ between sources. This article states "2,000 t/day for 5 years → reaching 4,000 t/day (about 1.3 million t/year) in year 6," while the "Major Gold Mines and Production" field article (§4-1) states "reaching 4,000 t/day (with an additional US$160m) in about 18 months → 8,000 t/day by year 9 → 12,000 t/day by year 12." The initial 2,000 t/day and the final 12,000 t/day (year 12) agree between both articles, but the timing of reaching 4,000 t/day differs sharply — "year 6" versus "18 months." Confirming this against Philex's own official disclosure is needed — currently unconfirmed. Both accounts are retained rather than dropping either one (2026-08-25 cross-check). Total investment for construction plus ramp-up is about $1 billion (roughly ₱18 billion, or about $240 million, already invested).
- The startup has repeatedly slipped.
| Point in time | Target |
|---|---|
| 2022 | Commercial production start in Q1 2025 |
| December 2024–June 2025 | March 2026 (first metal pour) |
| June 2026 (shareholders' meeting) | Q3 2026 |
| Late July 2026 (latest disclosure) | Plant commissioning completion in Q4 2026 |
- 注 As of August 24, 2026, no official announcement has been confirmed of the first copper-cathode output or commercial production start. Philex says the process plant is being handed over in stages from EEI Corp., with Ausenco Pty. Ltd. as lead consultant proceeding step-by-step with commissioning. The company itself says revenue contribution will begin in 2027.
3-5. Tampakan (Sagittarius Mines) — a world-class porphyry copper-gold deposit that keeps stalling
Why it has stalled (timeline)
| Year | Event |
|---|---|
| 1990 | Discovered by Western Mining Corporation |
| 2001 | The FTAA (Financial or Technical Assistance Agreement) transferred to Sagittarius Mines (SMI) |
| 2010 | South Cotabato province banned open-pit mining by provincial ordinance |
| 2015 | Glencore withdrew (citing regulatory uncertainty) |
| 2017 | A nationwide open-pit mining ban was imposed |
| 2020 | The local government voided the agreement as "unfair"; the FTAA was extended 12 years |
| 2021 | The nationwide open-pit ban was lifted, and the provincial ban was also repealed |
| February 2025 | DENR extended the FTAA a further 6 years, to 2038 |
| October 2025 | SMI solicited a "strategic partner with modern technology"; the production-start target slipped to 2028 |
| August 2026 | Consolidation into Dominion Holdings (DHI) announced (see below) |
Resources 注
| Figure | Content | Caveat |
|---|---|---|
| 2.94 billion tons at 0.51% copper, 0.19 g/t gold (0.2% copper cutoff) = 15 million tons contained copper, 17.6 million oz contained gold. Of this, M&I resources are 2.27 billion t at 0.55% copper | JORC (2004 edition) compliant, as of end-December 2011 (ASX disclosure, January 2012) | This is the most recent published resource figure whose basis can be identified. 注This is a resource, not a reserve (no publicly disclosed JORC Ore Reserve could be confirmed). No update has been published in nearly 15 years (corrected in the 2026-08-25 cross-check. Source: "Major Gold Mines and Production" field article, §4-2) |
| 注"2.94 billion tons at 0.6% copper, 18 million oz gold" | The figure most widely circulated in press reports and on Wikipedia, among other places | Incorrect. This conflates the older estimate (2.49 billion t at 0.6% copper, 0.3% cutoff) with the newer one (2.94 billion t at 0.51% copper). Do not cite it in this combined form (determined in the 2026-08-25 cross-check. Source: "Major Gold Mines and Production" field article, §4-2) |
| 1.104 billion tons at 0.65% copper, 0.26 g/t gold (0.3% copper cutoff) | JORC-guideline indicated + inferred resources, as of 2004 | Clearly sourced, but more than 20 years old |
| "More than 2.5 billion tons of estimated deposits" | SMI's own website | The operator's own claim |
| "Worth a total of $150–200 billion" | Various press reports | Price assumptions not disclosed; not comparable |
The description "one of the world's leading undeveloped porphyry copper-gold deposits" / "Southeast Asia's largest undeveloped copper-gold deposit" is itself consistent across multiple independent sources. For the resource figure, the JORC 2004-edition estimate as of end-December 2011 — 2.94 billion t at 0.51% Cu, 0.19 g/t Au — is the only published value with a clearly identifiable basis, and no JORC/NI 43-101 resource update for 2025–2026 could be confirmed (unconfirmed). When introducing this in Japanese, it should be clearly labeled "a JORC 2004-edition resource (not a reserve) as of end-2011." (Corrected in the 2026-08-25 cross-check. An earlier version of this article had stated that "neither the reporting standard, the publisher, nor the base year could be identified," but the related field articles "Major Gold Mines and Production" and "A General Study of Underground Resources" had in fact identified the standard and the date.)
The biggest news of 2026: consolidation into Dominion Holdings
- Per a Philippine Stock Exchange disclosure dated August 20, 2026, Dominion Holdings Inc. (DHI) is absorbing Indophil Resources Phils. Inc. and Sonar Holdings Inc. (with DHI as the surviving entity).
- Indophil directly holds 40% of SMI, and Sonar 31.60%, for a combined 71.60% economic interest and 100% of the voting rights.
- DHI is increasing its authorized capital from ₱3.42 billion to ₱30.0 billion. A shareholders' meeting is set for September 14, 2026. The share-exchange ratio will be determined after an independent valuation.
- Background: the structure has the Sy conglomerate (SM Investments) taking the lead, the Consunji family (DMCI Holdings) handling the practical side of mine operations, and the Alcantara group as a minority shareholder. In March 2026, Isidro A. Consunji became DHI Chairman (his predecessor, SM's Frederic C. DyBuncio, remains as President).
- DHI will thereby hold both of the country's two largest copper-gold assets — Cebu's Atlas (Consolidated) (54.48% held by the Sy side) and Tampakan — positioning it to become the "largest mining company in the Philippines."
- 注 However, as of mid-2026, Tampakan's Environmental Compliance Certificate (ECC) has not yet been issued. A certiorari petition to void the FTAA extension, brought by Bishop Cerson Cascas of the Diocese of Marbel and others, also continues, and the project area overlaps with B'laan and other indigenous ancestral domains. "Production start in 2028" remains, for now, solely the operator's own target.
3-6. King-king (Pantukan, Davao de Oro)
- Mining claim: MPSA No. 009-92-XI (approved May 27, 1992, revised 2002, 2,976 ha), in the town of Pantukan. Its DMPF (Declaration of Mining Project Feasibility) and ECC have already been obtained.
- Ownership structure: Kingking Mining Corporation is held by St. Augustine Gold & Copper (TSX: SAU) at 40%, Nadecor at 40%, and Queensberry Mining and Development (linked to the Villar family) at 20%. The importance here is that the Villar family, which is acquiring PASAR, also has upstream involvement in King-king.
| Category | Tonnage | Grade | Contained metal | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Measured + Indicated resources (August 2023) | 1.1197 billion t | 0.24% copper, 0.34 g/t gold | 5.553 billion lb copper, 11.147 million oz gold | NI 43-101 |
| Inferred resources | 675.2 million t | 0.20% copper, 0.27 g/t gold | 2.854 billion lb copper, 5.464 million oz gold | NI 43-101 |
| Proven + Probable reserves | 959.4 million t | 0.26% copper, 0.36 g/t gold | 5.396 billion lb copper, 9.771 million oz gold | NI 43-101 |
- Economics of the 2025 PFS (preliminary feasibility study, prepared by M3 Engineering): an after-tax NPV(7%) of $4.18 billion, IRR of 34.2%, initial capex of $2.37 billion, mine life of 38 years, payback of 1.9 years, and a strip ratio of 0.81. Lifetime production of 4.4 billion lb (2 million t) of copper and 6.9 million oz of gold. The first 5 years would average 284 million lb of copper and 333,000 oz of gold per year.
- In October 2025, the board approved moving forward to a DFS (definitive feasibility study), led by Stantec, with IMC handling mine planning and resource estimation. Target completion is Q4 2026. Under consideration: introducing chloride leaching for low-grade sulfide stockpiles, improving grinding-circuit efficiency, and shortening mine life to 21–25 years (i.e., increasing throughput).
- 注 Historically, this project has had frequent ownership disputes — an internal control fight within Nadecor (2011–2013), and its inclusion on a 2017 DENR list recommending MPSA cancellation, among others. It overlaps with indigenous Mansaka ancestral domain, and local opposition movements continue.
4. Smelting capacity: PASAR's shutdown and the reversion to "exporting concentrate, importing refined metal"
4-1. What PASAR is
| Item | Content |
|---|---|
| Full name | Philippine Associated Smelting and Refining Corporation (PASAR) |
| Location | Barangay Libertad, Isabel, Leyte (within the Leyte Industrial Development Estate) |
| Established | December 7, 1976 (established by the Philippine government) / commercial operations began 1983; construction cost of $300 million |
| Significance | Southeast Asia's first copper smelter/refinery, and the only one in the Philippines |
| Privatization | Acquired by Glencore in 1999 |
| Capacity | Originally 138,000 t/year of cathode copper → expanded to more than 200,000 t (some reports say 215,000 t/year); concentrate throughput capacity of about 1.2 million t/year |
| LME brand | "PSR" (registered since 2008) |
| Feedstock | Requires roughly 720,000 tons of copper concentrate annually, more than domestic production can supply, so it relies on imports. It served as an outlet for concentrate from Australia and Indonesia, and also processed surplus cargoes destined from South America to China |
4-2. The February 2025 shutdown
- Production halted in early February 2025 (market sources, SMM, February 6). PASAR issued an official statement on February 24 (local Monday), saying it would move into "care and maintenance" mode, citing "ongoing evaluation of operations and difficult market conditions" (Reuters, February 25, 2025).
- The direct cause was the historic collapse of TC/RCs (treatment and refining charges).
| Indicator | Value | Date / source |
|---|---|---|
| Annual benchmark TC/RC (2025) | US$21.25/t · 2.125 ¢/lb | Antofagasta × Chinese smelters |
| Annual benchmark TC/RC (2026) | US$0/t (a record low) | Settled January 2026, S&P Global / SMM |
| Spot TC (CIF Asia) | −US$65.40/t | November 21, 2025, Fastmarkets |
| Spot TC | −US$126.80/dmt | End of June 2026 |
| Japanese smelters | Seeking a separate benchmark from China's for 2026 (they secured US$25/t · 2.5 ¢/lb in 2025) | November 2025, Reuters |
注 A negative TC/RC means the smelter is paying the mine to process its concentrate. This resulted from a global surge in smelting capacity (especially in China) combined with concentrate shortages tied to mine-side troubles, and is not a problem unique to PASAR. China's government has suspended new smelter-construction approvals, and major Chinese smelters have also cut output.
4-3. Ownership transfer (Glencore → the Villar family)
- December 2024: reports that Glencore was considering a sale.
- July 8, 2025: Bloomberg reported that Glencore agreed to sell to the Villar family (led by Manny Villar Jr.). Glencore positioned this as part of a global restructuring consolidating Canadian (Quebec) copper assets and US recycling facilities under its zinc-smelting division.
- 注 As of August 24, 2026, the deal's formal closing and any restart timeline could not be confirmed in publicly available materials (unconfirmed). This remains at the stage of speculation that it will "restart once market conditions improve."
- Strategic significance: the Villar family also has upstream operations through St. Augustine Gold & Copper (King-king), Queensberry Mining, and Nationwide Development Corp. (Nadecor), raising the prospect of vertical integration — processing its own mines' concentrate at its own smelter. If Tampakan is developed, its feedstock supply would become even more secure.
4-4. What the shutdown means — a reversal of structure, and the local economy
(a) Trade structure
| Before the shutdown | After the shutdown |
|---|---|
| Import concentrate → produce cathode copper domestically → export almost 100% of cathode (75% of value going to Thailand, China, and Vietnam) | Export domestic concentrate as-is → import cathode copper and copper products |
| Some copper value-add captured domestically | All value-add now occurs overseas (China, Japan, South Korea) |
- Following the shutdown announcement, an estimated 240,000 tons of annual concentrate supply was reportedly redirected from the Asian market toward China (industry analysis).
- 注 98% of refined copper (cathode) imports by value come from Japan (2020–2024, OEC). This dependence is likely to strengthen further as a result of PASAR's shutdown. The Philippines' total copper (HS Chapter 74, etc.) import value was $1.31 billion in 2025 (UN COMTRADE, updated June 2026).
(b) Blow to the local economy
| Indicator | Value | Source |
|---|---|---|
| Workers directly affected | About 3,000 | Press reports |
| Eastern Visayas GRDP growth, 2025 | 1.0% (versus 6.2% in 2024) | PSA (published April 2026) |
| Same region, manufacturing | −9.6% (13.9% of the regional economy) | PSA |
| Same region, industry sector | +5.7% (2024) → −3.8% (2025) | PSA |
| Eastern Visayas unemployment rate | 7.7% (January 2026), versus 2.4% a year earlier | PSA |
| Same, number unemployed | About 157,000 (versus about 52,000 a year earlier) | PSA |
NEDA's regional office (Director Meylene Rosales) has argued the region "over-depended on PASAR," calling for diversification of manufacturing. The Regional Development Council (RDC) is drafting mitigation measures.
注 The fact that the shutdown of a single smelter knocked roughly 5 points off one region's growth rate is worth remembering as a textbook example of how the Philippine regional economy can depend on a single large-scale enterprise.
5. Chromite — a once-great producer, present day
5-1. History: the Masinloc/Coto mine, Zambales
- The Zambales Ophiolite ultramafic body is Alpine-type, hosting podiform (lens-shaped) chromite deposits within peridotite and dunite. Known resources (including already-mined amounts) total about 15 million tons (USGS).
- Discovered around 1925–1926, with production beginning in the 1930s. From 1934, Benguet Consolidated operated the mine under contract to Consolidated Mines Inc., eventually expanding capacity to 3,800 t/day of run-of-mine ore.
- A 1958 Geological Society of America (GSA) Bulletin describes the Masinloc (Coto) mine as "the world's largest producer of refractory-grade chromite ore."
- The US relied on the Philippines for 80–90% of its refractory-grade chromite imports, and America's own basic-refractory technology was itself designed around the properties of Coto's high-alumina chromite (USGS).
| Period | Production |
|---|---|
| 1946–1952 | 1,605,867.6 long tons (32.33% Cr₂O₃) |
| 1950–1964 | North-central Zambales alone accounted for 20% of "free world" production |
| 1960 (peak) | 606,103 t refractory grade (mostly from the Coto mine) + 128,426 t metallurgical grade (from the Acoje mine) |
| 1946–1976 (nationwide) | 2,756,072 DMT metallurgical grade / 12,425,200 DMT refractory grade |
5-2. Refractory-grade vs. metallurgical-grade 注
| Category | Cr₂O₃ | Al₂O₃ | Use | Occurrence in Zambales |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Refractory grade | 30–44 wt% | 20–30 wt% | Refractory brick | Hosted in the peridotite–troctolite–olivine gabbro system |
| Metallurgical grade | 45–53 wt% | 12–18 wt% | Ferrochrome → stainless steel | Hosted in the peridotite–pyroxenite–norite system |
The two are spatially separated, and are thought to have crystallized from distinct parent magmas (Mineralium Deposita, 1986). 注 Current MGB statistics do not distinguish refractory grade from metallurgical grade. That classification was used mainly in 20th-century reports.
5-3. Current production levels
| Period | Production | Year-on-year |
|---|---|---|
| 2024 (Techiron/Chromiteking only) | 63,022 DMT (₱629.3 million) | +165% (volume) |
| Jan–Sep 2025 (nationwide) | 72,599 DMT | −30.1% (value −35.7%) |
- Only 4 chromite mines were operating nationwide as of June 2025 (MGB) — small compared with nickel's 38, gold's 11, and iron's 4.
- Major operators (MGB 2024 statistics):
| Operator | Mining claim | 2024 production |
|---|---|---|
| Techiron Resources / Chromiteking | Giporlos, Eastern Samar (Homonhon Island), MPSA 292-2009-VIII | 63,022 DMT |
| Krominco Inc. | Loreto, Dinagat Islands, MPSA 291-2009-XIII | Zero |
| Shangfil Mining & Trading | Santa Cruz, Zambales, MPSA 250-2007-III | Zero |
- Taganito HPAL (THPAL) has produced chromite commercially as a by-product since April 2021 (recovered from the nickel-cobalt mixed sulfide process). It decided in 2017 to build a recovery plant, and began producing concentrate in March 2021.
- 注 The claim that "the Philippines is one of the world's leading chromite producers" is now incorrect. The current world's largest producer is South Africa, with global consumption at roughly 60 million tons (2024). "Once the world's largest refractory-grade producer" is the accurate description.
- The PSA's Class A chromite reserves stand at 66.29 million MT (2025), so a substantial resource base remains. The production slump is less about resource depletion than about shifts in price, demand, and refractory technology.
6. Other metals
6-1. Iron ore
| Item | Content |
|---|---|
| Jan–Sep 2025 production | 100,683 DMT (+109.5%), value ₱328.95 million (+100.2%). Driven by new production lines and resumed shipments (MGB) |
| Number of operating mines | 4 (MPSA, as of June 2025) |
| Center of production | Magnetite sand. Major beach deposits in northern/northwestern Luzon, eastern Leyte, and southwestern Negros |
| Grade | Economic deposits run 15–30% magnetite, refined to 55–60% Fe after processing. Titanium and vanadium impurities hinder smelting, but where their content is high, the material gains value as special-steel feedstock |
| Endowment (government estimates) | Massive magnetite about 56 million MT, magnetite sand under 2 billion MT, laterite ore under 2 billion MT; 注 definitions unconfirmed |
| Major operators | Ore Asia Mining and Development (Doña Remedios Trinidad, Bulacan, MPSA 353-2022-III, riverbed dredging); JDVC Resources (offshore Cagayan, planning 3.65 million t/year for 47 years) |
注 More than 90% of the Philippines' iron-making feedstock is imported, so domestic magnetite sand plays only a limited role.
6-2. 注 Manganese, zinc, and lead — commercial production is effectively zero
- Of the 60 operating metallic mines as of June 2025, the breakdown was nickel 38, gold 11, chromite 4, iron 4 (plus copper). Not a single manganese, zinc, or lead mine was among them (MGB).
- USGS's list of Philippine mineral commodities produced in 2024 (chromium, copper, gold, iron ore, perlite, scandium, silver, steel, zeolite) also does not include manganese, zinc, or lead.
- These exist as endowments only: the (dormant, with no restart plan) manganese mine on Siquijor Island, and the manganese deposit at Gabaldon, Nueva Ecija (said to be more than 50% Mn, at about 4 million tons, but undeveloped and with even trading information now stale).
- 注 The characterization "the Philippines is a zinc/lead resource country" describes endowment, not production. The standard boilerplate phrase in investment-promotion materials — "$1 trillion in undeveloped copper, gold, nickel, zinc, and silver reserves" — falls into this same category.
- Manganese is mentioned by the government only at the stage of being a "future exploration target," alongside cobalt, copper, and nickel.
6-3. Molybdenum
- Recoverable as a by-product of porphyry copper deposits. Atlas/Carmen Copper has stated an intent to commercialize molybdenum, magnetite, and pyrite (2024 Integrated Report).
- 注 At the national statistical level, molybdenum production does not appear as an independent line item in MGB's metallic mineral production tables (unconfirmed). Whether commercial shipments have actually begun could not be confirmed from published materials.
- Market conditions are favorable: the IMF's molybdenum spot price stood at US$65,503/t as of May 2026 (up 48.9% year-on-year), having risen from roughly $20/lb toward nearly $30/lb. FOB China molybdic oxide was US$33.70/lb on June 1, 2026. IMOA/Antaike forecast a supply-demand shortfall of 44,300 tons in 2026.
- Higher copper prices give copper mines an incentive to boost output, which also increases the supply of by-product molybdenum, but as of 2026 supply is not keeping up with rising demand.
6-4. Cobalt — a by-product of nickel HPAL
Nearly all of the Philippines' cobalt comes from two HPAL (High Pressure Acid Leach) plants.
| Plant | Location | Ownership | Operating since | Capacity |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Coral Bay Nickel (CBNC) | Rio Tuba, Palawan | Under the Sumitomo Metal Mining (SMM) group. Feedstock from Rio Tuba Nickel (a Nickel Asia subsidiary) | 2005– | About 24,000 t/year of nickel |
| Taganito HPAL Nickel (THPAL) | Claver, Surigao del Norte | Under the SMM group (注 two different ownership breakdowns circulate — "SMM 62.5% / Nickel Asia 22.5% / Mitsui & Co. 15.0%" per the "Rare Earths and Strategic Minerals" article, versus "SMM 75% / NAC 10% / Mitsui 15%" per the "Gold and Investment: Japanese Companies" article — unconfirmed). Established August 22, 2008; investment reported as $1.6 billion in this article versus about $1.3 billion in the "Mining and Nickel" article — 注the figures differ by source | Commercial operations began October 2013 → commissioning completed June 2014, reaching rated capacity in August | 30,000 t/year nickel, 2,640 t/year cobalt (as nickel-cobalt mixed sulfide; 30-year project life) |
- The product is a "nickel-cobalt mixed sulfide (MS)," which is exported to Sumitomo Metal Mining's Niihama Nickel Refinery (Ehime Prefecture, Japan) and its Harima Works, where it is refined into electrolytic nickel, electrolytic cobalt, nickel sulfate, and other products used in EV battery materials.
- THPAL has been diversifying its by-products, achieving the Philippines' first commercial scandium production in 2019 and beginning commercial chromite production in April 2021.
- MGB's statistical category "mixed nickel-cobalt sulfide":
| Period | Volume | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Jan–Sep 2025 | 55,844 DMT (+3.7%) | −6.4% |
| Jan–Mar 2026 | 16,711 DMT (−8.3%) | ₱10.13 billion (+22.1%) |
- According to USGS, the Philippines ranked 7th in the world for cobalt mine production in 2024, at about 1.0% of the world total.
- 注 A distinguishing feature of the Philippines is that cobalt is a by-product of nickel, not of copper. This is fundamentally different from the sediment-hosted copper deposits of the Democratic Republic of Congo or Zambia. Consequently, Philippine cobalt supply moves in step with nickel prices and nickel ore supply.
7. Export destinations and the impact of price swings
7-1. Export destinations for copper ore/concentrate
| Destination | 2024 | 2025 | Source |
|---|---|---|---|
| China | Over $1 billion | $424.15 million | UN COMTRADE |
| Japan | $131 million | — | UN COMTRADE |
| South Korea | $84 million | — | UN COMTRADE |
| India | $50 million | — | UN COMTRADE |
注 There is more than a twofold gap between the 2024 and 2025 export values to China. This cannot be explained by the volume decline alone (copper concentrate down 7.8%). This may reflect differences in how the statistics were compiled (reporting country, product code), or one figure may simply be wrong. Both are presented here, and both should be treated as "needing verification" (unconfirmed).
Structurally, the ordering — China dominant by volume (more than 10 times Japan's), followed by Japan, then South Korea — is consistent across multiple sources. Carmen Copper is described as shipping to "smelters in China, Japan, and South Korea," while other reports describe "nearly all exports going to China."
7-2. The flow of refined copper (cathode)
| Direction | Counterpart | Notes |
|---|---|---|
| Exports (2020–2024, by value) | Thailand $416 million, China $391 million, Vietnam $200 million (combined 75%), plus Indonesia, South Korea, Taiwan, and Malaysia | Cathode produced by PASAR |
| Imports | 98% of value from Japan (China 0.2%, South Korea 0.1%) | — |
| 2024 average unit price | Exports US$8,899/t, imports US$9,176/t | — |
7-3. The impact of price swings
| Metal | Movement in 2025–2026 | Impact on the Philippines |
|---|---|---|
| Copper | An all-time LME high of US$14,527.50/t on January 29, 2026. 2025 was up about +41% for the year | Value held up despite falling volumes. But the smelting side is in a devastating position with TC/RC at zero or negative. Mines and smelters are moving in opposite directions |
| Gold | Sharply higher (roughly US$4,600/oz level in H1 2026) | Gold is propping up the economics of copper-gold mines (Padcal, Didipio, Carmen). Gold also leads MGB's production-value statistics |
| Nickel | Down about 30% in 2023–2025 (on Indonesian oversupply) | Squeezing HPAL economics → spilling over into cobalt supply |
| Chromite | Value down 35.7% in Jan–Sep 2025 | Continued shutdowns among small producers |
| Molybdenum | Up about 50% in 2026 | By-product recovery may become more economically attractive |
An important asymmetry: even when copper prices rise, treatment/refining charges (TC/RC) are set by concentrate supply and demand, so a copper price surge does not rescue smelters. If anything, excess smelting capacity combined with a concentrate shortage pushed TC/RCs down, hitting a standalone smelter like PASAR directly. The seemingly contradictory phenomenon of "copper smelters collapsing even as copper prices soar" needs to be understood on its own terms.
8. Policy environment (2025–2026)
8-1. Republic Act No. 12253 (the fiscal-reform law for large-scale metallic mining)
注(Amendment status confirmed 2026-08-26) RA 12253 amends the National Internal Revenue Code (RA 8424), not the Mining Act (RA 7942). Its official title is "…Amending for the Purpose Sections 34(B), 287, and the Subjects of Title VI and Chapter VII Thereof, and Creating New Sections 151-A, 151-B, 151-C, 151-D, and 287-A, All Under Republic Act No. 8424…" RA 7942 is cited only as the source of definitions such as "mineral agreement," "FTAA," and "metallic mining contractor." The substantive royalty provision is the newly created Section 151-A of the NIRC, inserted by Section 6 of RA 12253 (not "Section 151-A of RA 12253"). (Source: lawphil.net, ra_12253_2025, full text)
| Item | Content |
|---|---|
| Signed | September 4, 2025 (President Marcos; originally Senate Bill 2826) |
| IRR published | December 20, 2025 |
| Took effect | February 17, 2026 |
| Inside mineral reservations | A royalty of 5% of gross output (unchanged) |
| Outside mineral reservations | A margin-based royalty of 1–5% (5 tiers). If the margin falls below the threshold, a minimum royalty of 0.1% of gross output applies |
| Windfall profits tax (WPT) | Applies from a margin of 30%, ranging 1% → 10% (at a margin of 75% or higher). Standard deductions are not allowed in the calculation, though corporate income tax and royalties are deductible |
| Ring-fencing | Each mining agreement/FTAA is a separate tax unit. Losses and gains cannot be offset across agreements. Registered with the BIR under a separate branch TIN |
| Thin-capitalization rule | A debt-to-equity ratio of 2:1 for related-party borrowing |
| Charges that remain unchanged | A 4% excise tax on mineral products (注its basis is Section 151 of the National Internal Revenue Code (RA 8424), not RA 7942 — the rate was raised from 2% to 4% by TRAIN (RA 10963, 2017); corrected in the 2026-08-26 amendment-status confirmation. Source: LawPhil, ra_12253_2025's official title (identifying RA 8424 as the law amended) / the row for RA 10963 in the master legislative index), and a 1% royalty to indigenous cultural communities (ICCs) under DENR AO 96-40 |
| Transparency | Audits of mineral sales/exports, data disclosure, and establishment of a multi-stakeholder accountability body |
| Projected revenue gain | A combined ₱25.08 billion over 2026–2029 (averaging ₱6.26 billion/year) — a government estimate |
Practical implication: while government's take rises during high-price periods, ring-fencing now means a producing mine's profits can no longer offset losses at a new development project. This affects financing plans for large new projects like Silangan and Tampakan.
8-2. A ban on raw-ore exports has been "shelved"
- On February 3, 2025, the Senate passed SB 2826 on third reading. It would have banned raw-ore exports five years after signing (proposed by Senate President Escudero, modeled on Indonesia's 2020 nickel-ore export ban).
- In June 2025, the bicameral conference committee removed the export-ban provision. Both chambers approved this (with Sen. Hontiveros the lone dissenting vote in the Senate). The Chamber of Mines of the Philippines (COMP) and the Philippine Nickel Industry Association (PNIA) had both supported the fiscal reform but opposed the export ban.
- 注 Therefore, as of August 2026, there is no ban on exporting raw ore (copper concentrate, nickel ore, chromite) from the Philippines. The government has shifted course away from a ban and toward investment incentives and attracting processing plants.
- In March 2026, the DTI began lobbying to join the US-led critical minerals framework, proposing measures such as price floors for midstream processed products.
9. 注 Points that trip people up (summary)
| # | Common misconception | The accurate understanding |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | "The Philippines is a major copper producer with the world's 4th-largest reserves" | The reserves ranking is an unverified claim from the Philippine government. Mine production ranks 28th in the world, at a 0.27% global share (BGS 2023) |
| 2 | "Copper reserves are 1.1 billion tons" | An ore-based endowment figure. The PSA's commercial (Class A) reserves are 4.14 million tons (2025, metal basis) |
| 3 | "MGB's copper production of X tons = X tons of copper metal" | MGB reports copper concentrate in DMT. This is not metal content (grade is only a few percent to the low tens of percent) |
| 4 | "The Philippines is one of the world's leading chromite producers" | True in the past (1950s–60s), for refractory grade. The current world leader is South Africa |
| 5 | "The Philippines also produces zinc and lead" | As of June 2025, there were zero operating zinc, lead, or manganese mines. Endowment and production are different things |
| 6 | "High copper prices mean smelters are thriving too" | TC/RC is set by concentrate supply and demand. The 2026 annual benchmark was US$0/t, with spot rates negative — the direct cause of PASAR's shutdown |
| 7 | "Cobalt is a by-product of copper" | In the Philippines it is a by-product of nickel HPAL, and moves with nickel market conditions |
| 8 | "Tampakan will start production in 2026" | That was the target as of 2023. The current target is 2028, the ECC has not yet been obtained, and litigation continues |
| 9 | "Silangan started commercial production in March 2026" | That was the 2025-era target. The July 2026 disclosure moved commissioning completion to Q4 2026 |
| 10 | "Raw-ore exports will be banned" | Removed by the bicameral conference committee in June 2025. The ban was never enacted |
10. Unconfirmed / to-be-verified items
- The reporting standard, publisher, and base year behind Tampakan's "2.94 billion tons at 0.6% copper" resource figure (whether it is JORC-compliant)
- The calculation basis and original source for claims such as "world's 4th-largest copper reserves" and "world's 6th-largest chromite"
- The consistency of copper ore/concentrate export values to China (over $1 billion in 2024 vs. $424 million in 2025)
- PASAR's formal sale closing date and restart timeline
- Whether Silangan's first metal pour has actually occurred (no official announcement could be confirmed as of August 24, 2026)
- MGB's full-year 2025 metallic mineral production statistics (as of August 2026, this article could only confirm Jan–Sep figures of ₱219.742 billion as the latest)
- The definitional difference between "total mining production value of ₱316.29 billion" and "metallic mineral production value of ₱252.9 billion" for 2024
- Whether there is any actual commercial molybdenum shipment record in the Philippines
- The quantitative impact of Typhoon Tino (November 2025) on Carmen Copper's operations
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