The Philippine Casino and Integrated Resort Industry, and POGO — PAGCOR as Regulator and Operator, Entertainment City, and the 2024 Total Ban
0. Summary of This Article
The total ban on POGO (Philippine Offshore Gaming Operators), which President Marcos announced in his State of the Nation Address (SONA) on July 22, 2024, was the single most economically consequential policy shift in Philippine economic policy in 2024. It was a decision to voluntarily give up roughly ₱23 billion a year in government revenue and about 63,000 jobs (per PAGCOR Chairman Alejandro Tengco, as of July 2024), and its ripples reached the office and residential real estate markets, public security, and relations with China.
The domestic casino industry, meanwhile, followed a different trajectory. Industrywide GGR (Gross Gaming Revenue) grew to ₱396,138,802,763.57 in 2025 (per PAGCOR's "2025 Philippine Gaming Industry Data"), but has sharply decelerated in 2026.
| Issue | Current status (as of 2026-08-26) |
|---|---|
| PAGCOR privatization | GCG recommendation → awaiting an Executive Order (EO). EO expected within 2026, completion targeted for 2028 |
| Industry GGR | 2025: ₱396.1B (+6.39%) → Q2 2026: ₱88.13B (year-on-year -20.33%) |
| POGO | Permanently outlawed by RA 12312 (approved October 23, 2025). Illegal operations nonetheless persist |
| Office market | Metro Manila vacancy rate 19% (Colliers Q2 2026) |
| Condo market | Vacancy rate projected to reach 25.6% by end-2026, with the Bay Area approaching 60% (Colliers Q1 2026) |
1. PAGCOR — Both Regulator and Operator
1-1. Legal Basis (Confirmed Against Original Statutory Text)
| Law | Content | Provisions confirmed |
|---|---|---|
| PD 1869 (1983, the Consolidated Charter) | Establishes PAGCOR and its franchise | Sec. 9 (Regulatory Power) / Sec. 12 (Special Condition of Franchise) / Sec. 13(2)(a) (Exemptions) |
| RA 9487 (approved June 20, 2007) | Extends the franchise | Sec. 1 (amending PD 1869 Sec. 10) / Sec. 2 (amending PD 1869 Sec. 3(h)) |
| RA 7656 (1993) | GOCC dividend obligation (50% of net earnings) | — |
RA 9487 Sec. 1 extended the franchise, starting July 11, 2008, for "another period of twenty-five (25) years, renewable for another twenty-five (25) years." So the current franchise runs through July 2033, extendable to 2058 upon renewal. The same section also restricts the placement of slot machines and similar equipment to hotels and resorts of at least 3-star DOT accreditation.
RA 9487 Sec. 2 amended PD 1869 Sec. 3(h) to allow PAGCOR to enter "contracts of every kind" — investment contracts, joint ventures, management contracts. This is the provision that enables the licensed-IR (Integrated Resort) model.
PD 1869 Sec. 13(2)(a) sets "a Franchise Tax of five (5%) percent of the gross revenue or earnings" "in lieu of all kinds of taxes, levies, fees or assessments." Sec. 12 provides that, after deducting the franchise tax, the government receives 50% of gross revenue (60% if gross revenue is below ₱150 million).
注 A common error is conflating PAGCOR's "50% remittance to the National Treasury" with corporate income tax. This is in fact a separate "government share," distinct from the 5% franchise tax, grounded in PD 1869 Sec. 12.
1-2. The Dual-Role Structural Problem
PAGCOR wears three hats simultaneously.
- Regulator — licensing and supervising all casinos, electronic games, and bingo (PD 1869 Sec. 9)
- Operator — directly runs its own brand, "Casino Filipino," at over 40 locations nationwide
- Revenue agency — allocates earnings to the National Treasury, sports, health, and more
It has long been criticized for being in the position of reviewing and disciplining its own competitors. The concept meant to resolve this is "decoupling" — privatizing Casino Filipino.
1-3. Progress on Privatization (Decoupling) — 2025–2026
| Timing | Development | Source |
|---|---|---|
| October 2023 | Chairman Tengco: "privatization complete by 2028" | Inside Asian Gaming, 2023-10-10 |
| September 9–10, 2025 | Stated it is awaiting GCG (Governance Commission for GOCCs) approval | IAG / GGRAsia / GMA, 2025-09-09 to 10 |
| December 15, 2025 | Maintains a "second half of 2026 to 2027" target | Philstar / Asia Gaming Brief, 2025-12-15 |
| July 19, 2026 | The GCG will submit its recommendation to the Office of the President within August, to be implemented via an Executive Order (EO), executed by end of 2026, with completion targeted for 2028 | IAG, 2026-07-19 |
| July 27–28, 2026 | The sale price is estimated at around ₱50 billion. 注 Though there are concerns that UHC (universal health coverage) funding would fall by ₱2.1 billion a year | Manila Bulletin / Inquirer, 2026-07-27 to 28 |
Chairman Tengco said in July 2026, "The Office of the President will study that so it will be at end of this year. It will be done through an Executive Order" (IAG, 2026-07-19).
注 "It could sell for ₱50 billion" is an estimate, not a settled valuation. There have also been reports that buyers are balking at the requirement to retain existing employees (Manila Bulletin, 2026-07-27). Privatization is expected to proceed via executive order, with no new legislation assumed as a prerequisite.
1-4. Contribution to Government Revenue (figures per the original tables)
| Year | PAGCOR total revenue | Nation-building contribution | Source |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | — | ₱34.67B | PAGCOR 2023 Annual Report |
| 2023 | ₱79.37B (+34.63%) | ₱49.56B (+42.94%) | PAGCOR 2023 Annual Report |
| 2025 (dividend only) | — | Dividend ₱5.67B (50% of net income under RA 7656; 5th among 50 GOCCs) | PAGCOR, 2026-07-10 |
| H1 2026 | ₱43.32B (-26.64%) | ₱30.16B (of which ₱18.49B is the government's 50% share, and ₱2.01B is the PSC's share) | PAGCOR, 2026-07-30 |
PAGCOR's net income for H1 2026 fell to ₱1.58B (-85.29%). Net operating income was ₱31.75B (-35.05%), but an increase in statutory remittances to the Philippine Sports Commission (PSC) crushed net income (PAGCOR, 2026-07-30).
For full-year 2026, Chairman Tengco has stated he expects revenue of ₱86.9 billion (-18% year-on-year) (IAG, 2026-08-25).
1-5. Three Headwinds in 2026
- The BSP's (central bank's) decoupling of e-wallets from online gaming — Chairman Tengco said, "After that was implemented, we experienced a downtrend of around 40% in gaming activities" (IAG, 2026-08-25). In January 2026, PAGCOR was preparing to submit a position paper to the BSP seeking a reversal (IAG, 2026-01-21).
- A ₱37 billion debt to the PSC — A final Supreme Court ruling confirmed PAGCOR's obligation to remit 5% of total revenue since 1993 to the PSC. It is being paid in installments over up to 10 years, at roughly ₱300 million a month (IAG, 2026-08-25 / Focus Gaming News, 2026-01-15). The basis is RA 6847 (the Philippine Sports Commission Act). PCSO (the Philippine Charity Sweepstakes Office) was likewise ordered to remit 30% of net proceeds from six lottery draws since 2006.
- Tighter advertising regulation — In July 2025, PAGCOR ordered the removal of outdoor gambling advertisements; on June 9, 2026, it ordered that existing responsible-gaming ads be replaced with notices for the National Problem Gambling Helpline (NPGH, launched May 26, 2026) (covering billboards, wallscapes, and digital displays; the deadline was July 15, 2026, with display permitted through September 15 of the same year) (PAGCOR, 2026-06-17).
2. The Actual GGR Figures — From PAGCOR's Original Tables
2-1. Total Trend
| Year | Total GGR | Year-on-year | Source |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | ₱285.27B | — | PAGCOR 2023 Annual Report |
| 2024 | ₱372,334,740,092 | — | PAGCOR, "2024 Philippine Gaming Industry Data" |
| 2025 | ₱396,138,802,763.57 | +6.39% | PAGCOR, "2025 Philippine Gaming Industry Data" |
| Q2 2026 | ₱88.13B | -20.33% (vs. ₱110.63B a year earlier) | PAGCOR, 2026 release |
注 Note that older and newer figures are being mixed up. In February 2025, GMA Network and others reported that "2024 gaming revenue was ₱410.5B," but PAGCOR's later, confirmed original table gives ₱372.33B. The +6.39% for 2025 is also calculated off ₱372.33B (372.33 × 1.0639 ≈ 396.1), so a comparison anchored on ₱410.5B does not hold up. If a Japanese-language article states "₱410 billion in 2024," it should be checked.
2-2. By Segment (PAGCOR's original table, in pesos)
| Segment | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|
| PAGCOR-operated (Casino Filipino) | 15,977,864,362.87 | 12,520,003,853.13 |
| └ Table games | 5,898,832,506.00 | 4,606,505,842.00 |
| └ Slot machines | 8,229,646,490.04 | 6,961,921,512.01 |
| └ Junkets | 1,608,694,861.55 | 861,488,209.40 |
| Licensed casinos | 201,839,537,258.60 | 182,502,810,038.01 |
| └ Entertainment City / NCR | 164,083,114,232.24 | 148,723,311,049.64 |
| └ Clark | 26,893,403,345.66 | 25,099,519,359.31 |
| └ Greenfield district | 9,472,735,386.49 | 7,498,368,934.30 |
| └ Fiesta | 1,390,284,294.21 | 1,181,610,694.76 |
| Other licensees | 154,517,338,470.53 | 201,115,988,872.43 |
| └ eGames (electronic games) | 135,711,611,452.65 | 185,258,719,554.36 |
| └ Bingo | 18,805,727,017.88 | 15,709,806,813.61 |
| └ Poker | — | 147,462,504.46 |
A structural shift is underway. From 2024 to 2025, brick-and-mortar casinos declined (EC/NCR down 9.4%), while eGames (online) surged +36.5%, reaching ₱185.2 billion on its own. About 47% of the industry's 2025 GGR was eGames. Chairman Tengco has stated that eGames accounted for 56% of PAGCOR's own revenue in 2025 (₱53.3 billion) (IAG, 2026-02-26).
The 2025 quarterly trend was Q1 ₱104.12B → Q2 ₱110.63B → Q3 ₱94.52B → Q4 ₱86.87B, a weakening in the second half, so the 2026 downturn had already begun in the second half of 2025.
The Q2 2026 breakdown was licensed casinos ₱45.37B (51.49%), electronic games ₱39.85B (45.21%), Casino Filipino ₱2.90B (3.30%). Chairman Tengco explained that "inflation and Middle East geopolitical crises squeezed discretionary spending" (PAGCOR statement).
3. Entertainment City (Manila Bay Area)
A roughly 100-ha bayside gaming enclave developed by PAGCOR. 注 Regarding total land area and total investment, no primary source could be reached, so this section covers only the individual operators' results.
3-1. The Big Four IRs Today
| IR | Operator / parent | Status in 2025–2026 |
|---|---|---|
| Solaire Resort (opened 2013) | Bloomberry Resorts / Enrique Razon Jr. | Added Solaire Resort North (Quezon City) in 2024. Full-year 2025 net loss of US$44.74M. Q1 2026 net loss ₱125M, Q2 2026 net loss ₱345.3M (narrower than ₱1.4B a year earlier). Cost-cutting stance amid weak VIP/premium demand |
| City of Dreams Manila (opened 2015) | Melco Resorts & Entertainment (operator) + Belle Corp (property) | Melco is reportedly considering selling its own 50% stake as "valuation-driven," still undecided as of November 2025. Belle Corp's H1 2026 gaming-distribution income was US$15.5M (+23%). Mark Tricano becomes property president from mid-September 2026 |
| Okada Manila (opened 2016) | Tiger Resort Leisure and Entertainment Inc. (TRLEI) / Universal Entertainment (Japan) | POGO ban drove VIP turnover down 48.1% and GGR down 20.1% (IAG, 2026-02-26). Sold its stake in Asiabest Group in December 2024, abandoning a planned backdoor listing |
| Newport World Resorts (opened 2009 as Resorts World Manila, renamed July 2022) | Travellers International Hotel Group / Alliance Global Group (Andrew Tan) | In July 2026, AGI completed its acquisition of Genting Hong Kong's 40% stake, making it a wholly owned subsidiary. H1 2026 attributable net income ₱568M, doubling year-on-year. Mass-market and online GGR offset a VIP decline |
New opening: Westside Resort within Entertainment City (80% owned by AGI, developed by Suntrust Home Developers) is nearing opening. IDX Games has secured a contract to supply systems for 250 tables (IAG, 2026-04-22). In June 2024, President Marcos himself referenced Westside City's tourism-boosting effect.
3-2. Okada Manila — The Full Timeline of the Management Dispute
The most misunderstood topic in Japanese-language coverage, so only confirmed facts are presented here, in chronological order.
| Timing | Event |
|---|---|
| 2017 | Kazuo Okada's nominal share in TRLEI is forfeited/revoked |
| February 2019 | Reported that Tiger Resort Asia acquired 66.67% of Okada Manila (Philstar, 2019-02-05) |
| May 31, 2022 | A group aligned with Okada forcibly seizes control of the casino-hotel (Inquirer, "Okada group forcibly takes control of casino-hotel," 2022-06-01), citing a Supreme Court Status Quo Ante Order (SQAO) as the basis |
| June 2022 | The ousted former board of directors files suit (Interaksyon, 2022-06-06) |
| September 2022 | The regulator's ruling restores Universal Entertainment's management (occupation lasted roughly three months) |
| September 16, 2022 | A Manila court dismisses a document-forgery case against Okada (IAG, 2022-09-16) |
| October 2022 | The DOJ charges Kazuo Okada, Tonyboy Cojuangco, and others with grave coercion (GMA, 2022-10-03 / IAG, 2022-10-05) |
| November 2022 | Universal Entertainment discloses an expected special loss of JPY1.6B (about US$11.5M) related to the occupation (IAG, 2022-11-16) |
| November 13, 2023 | The Supreme Court lifts the SQAO. It ruled Okada was "properly removed" as shareholder, director, chairman, and CEO, on three grounds: (1) his shares were merely nominal shares already revoked in 2017; (2) under Japanese and Hong Kong court rulings, the majority shareholder of parent Okada Holdings Ltd. is his son, Tomohiro Okada; and (3) he had missed the filing period for an election-related suit (IAG, 2023-11-27, based on Universal Entertainment's timely disclosure) |
注 The 2022-era understanding that "the Supreme Court recognized Okada's control" was later reversed. The SQAO was only a provisional restoration order; the ruling on the merits went the other way. 注 Also, 注 primary source not reached — this article could not access the G.R. number or full text of this Supreme Court resolution, so the above is sourced from reporting (Inside Asian Gaming) based on Universal Entertainment's timely disclosures.
4. Integrated Resorts in Clark and Cebu
| Region | Facility | Current status |
|---|---|---|
| Clark (Pampanga) | Hann Casino Resort | A soft opening of a new golf course at the adjacent Hann Reserve on January 28, 2026. PhilWeb officially launched Hann Online (online gaming) on February 5, 2026. A new bet type, "Power Play Baccarat," was introduced ahead of the curve in late March 2026 |
| Clark (GGR) | — | ₱26.89B (2024) → ₱25.10B (2025), a slight decline. The second-largest cluster after Entertainment City |
| Cebu | Emerald Bay (PH Resorts / Dennis Uy) | 注 Universal Entertainment called off the acquisition in July 2024 (Inquirer / Focus Gaming News, 2024-07-02). Subsequent progress unconfirmed |
| Cebu | NUSTAR Resort, etc. | 注 Primary source not reached. PAGCOR's original table records ₱7.50B (2025) under "Greenfield district," but no facility-level breakdown is published |
注 PAGCOR's original table breaks the country into four regions — "Entertainment City/NCR," "Clark," "Greenfield," and "Fiesta" — and Cebu is not a standalone line item. Whenever a figure for "the size of Cebu's casino market" appears, its source must always be checked.
5. POGO — From Founding to Total Ban
5-1. Origins (from 2016)
In 2016, under the Duterte administration, PAGCOR launched a licensing regime for offshore (foreign-customer-facing) online gambling. The setup based operators in the Philippines while prohibiting them from taking bets from customers inside the Philippines, with mainland Chinese players as the primary customer base. 注 Primary source not reached — the original PAGCOR regulation establishing the system (its issuance date and regulation number) could not be located. What follows is drawn only from facts confirmed in tax law and annual reports.
RA 11590 (approved September 22, 2021, the POGO taxation law; official title "AN ACT TAXING PHILIPPINE OFFSHORE GAMING OPERATIONS…") lets us confirm the framework of the system through its text. (Approval date added in the 2026-08-26 verification pass; source: the "Approved" line at the end of RA 11590's original text on LawPhil.)
| Provision | Content |
|---|---|
| Sec. 22 (amending NIRC Sec. 22) | Defines an "offshore gaming licensee" as an operator duly licensed by PAGCOR or others, and deems it to be doing business within the Philippines |
| Sec. 125-A | Taxed at 5% of GGR (total bets minus payouts), or a prescribed minimum monthly amount, whichever is higher, "in lieu of all other direct and indirect internal revenue taxes and local taxes" |
| Same | The regulatory fee is capped at 2% of GGR |
| Sec. 25(G) | A final withholding tax of 25% on the gross income of foreign employees, with a monthly minimum of ₱12,500. A ₱20,000 fine per employee without a TIN, with possible license revocation |
| Sec. 288(G) | Allocates gaming tax revenue 60% to UHC (universal health coverage under RA 11223), 20% to the Health Facilities Enhancement Program (HFEP), and 20% to the SDGs. The correct section number is 288(G) (under "Disposition of Incremental Revenues"). 注 Some places where LawPhil displays this law's title line show it as "228(G)," but the section heading in the body text is 288(G), and 288(G) is correct (confirmed in the 2026-08-26 verification pass) |
This RA 11590 was later repealed by RA 12312 (2025).
5-2. Peak-Era Scale (Confirmed Figures)
| Metric | Figure | Timing / source |
|---|---|---|
| Licensees (IGL) | 33 → 51 companies | Increase during 2023. PAGCOR 2023 Annual Report |
| Special Class BPO | 5 → 14 companies | Same |
| Accredited providers | 22 companies | Same |
| PAGCOR's offshore revenue | ₱2.98B (2022) → ₱5.17B (2023) (+73.08%) | PAGCOR 2023 Annual Report. Breakdown: license fees ₱3.15B + application/renewal fees, fines, etc. ₱2.01B |
| Licensees at time of ban | 43 companies | PAGCOR Chairman, July 2024 (IAG, 2024-07-24) |
| Employment | Approx. 63,000 (40,000 Filipinos + 23,000 foreigners) | Same |
| Impact on government revenue | ₱23 billion a year (license fees plus taxes) | Same |
| Largest domestic hub | Cavite Province, 33 ha, 57 buildings, roughly 30,000 people | December 2024 (IAG, 2024-12-18) |
注 Figures such as "298 operators at peak," "300,000 Chinese workers at peak," or "over 1 million sqm of office space" circulate widely in Japanese-language sources, but none of them could be reached in a primary source. The maximum figures officially acknowledged by PAGCOR are as shown above. In 2023, the terminology shifted from "POGO" to "IGL (Internet Gaming Licensee)" (to soften the negative connotation), so care is needed regarding the switchover timing when comparing statistics.
5-3. The Road to the Ban
| Date | Event | Source |
|---|---|---|
| July 22, 2024 | President Marcos announces a total POGO ban in his SONA | GMA / PNA, 2024-07-22 |
| July 24, 2024 | PAGCOR confirms "IGLs are also covered by the ban," announcing revocation of all 43 licenses by year-end 2024 | IAG, 2024-07-24 |
| October 2024 | PAGCOR begins the actual winding-down process | IAG, 2024-09-05 |
| November 1, 2024 | Two companies not complying with the ban are forcibly shut down | Inquirer, 2024-11-01 |
| November 30, 2024 | The largest hub in Cavite Province ceases operations | IAG, 2024-12-18 |
| November 5, 2024 | Executive Order No. 74 is signed, imposing a total ban on POGOs, IGLs, gaming agents, and service providers. It sets December 31, 2024 as the wind-down deadline, stating "the risks and negative consequences...significantly outweigh the economic and social benefits." Two technical working groups (TWGs) are established — ① worker recovery/reintegration (led by PAGCOR) and ② action against illegal offshore gambling (led by PAOCC) — with individual assignments for the DOJ, Bureau of Immigration (BI), AMLC, Department of Tourism, and LGUs | LawPhil (EO 74, s.2024 original text) |
| December 17, 2024 | Formal closing ceremony for the Cavite hub (power was also cut) | IAG, 2024-12-18 |
| December 31, 2024 | Final deadline of the ban | EO 74 |
| June 10, 2025 | The House of Representatives passes a permanent-ban bill on third reading | Inquirer, 2025-06-10 |
| October 23, 2025 | RA 12312, "Anti-POGO Act of 2025," is approved | LawPhil (RA 12312 original text) |
| October 29, 2025 | The Presidential Communications Office (PCO) announces the signing | PCO, 2025-10-29 / Philstar, 2025-10-30 |
| April 22, 2026 | Relevant agencies sign a unified Standard Operating Procedure (SOP) for enforcement of the ban | PNA, 2026-04-22 / Inquirer, 2026-04-23 |
注 Note the gap between the "signing date" and the "publication date." RA 12312's approval date is October 23, 2025 (LawPhil original text), but news reports carry an October 29–30 date. A Japanese-language article stating "enacted October 29" is referring to the publication date.
5-4. The Content of RA 12312 (the Anti-POGO Act of 2025)
The statutory structure confirmed from the original text on LawPhil is as follows.
| Section | Content |
|---|---|
| Sec. 1 | Short title, "Anti-POGO Act of 2025" |
| Sec. 2 | Declaration of policy — "offshore gaming operations in the Philippines are hereby banned and declared unlawful" |
| Sec. 3 | Definitions (operator, content provider, equipment, agent, etc.) |
| Sec. 4 | Prohibited acts — establishing, operating, accepting bets, using equipment, and any act of facilitation |
| Sec. 5 | Permanent revocation of already-issued licenses and immediate cessation of operations |
| Sec. 6 | Revocation of Alien Employment Permits (AEP) and visas for foreign workers, who are subject to deportation |
| Sec. 13 | Penalties — first offense: 6–8 years imprisonment plus a ₱15 million fine; second offense: 8–10 years plus ₱15–30 million; third offense: 10–12 years plus ₱30–50 million |
| Sec. 20 | Takes effect 15 days after publication in the Official Gazette |
| — | Repeals RA 11590 (the POGO taxation law) |
This structure matters a great deal. EO 74 is an executive order, so a future administration could reverse it, but RA 12312 is a statute, and reviving POGO would require legislative amendment or repeal. By simultaneously repealing RA 11590, the very vessel for taxation disappeared. In other words, the "regulate and tax it" option is now foreclosed by law.
5-5. The Full Timeline of the Alice Guo Case
| Date | Event |
|---|---|
| March 13, 2024 | PAOCC and others raid the Zun Yuan Technology Inc. facility in Bamban, Tarlac Province, rescuing 875 people (PNA, 2024-03-13) / "over 800" (Inquirer, 2024-03-14). Suspicion of human trafficking (Rappler, 2024-03-13) |
| June 2024 | Reporting begins tracing the relationship between the facility and then-Bamban Mayor Alice Guo (Rappler, 2024-06-02) |
| 2024 | Guo leaves the country and goes into hiding |
| September 2024 | Located in Indonesia. Turns out to actually be Chinese national Guo Hua Ping |
| September 2024 | The corruption case's jurisdiction is moved from Tarlac to a Valenzuela court (Rappler, 2024-09-13) |
| November 20, 2025 | Branch 167 of the Pasig Regional Trial Court, Judge Annielyn Medes-Cabelis, in a 111-page decision, convicted Guo and 7 others of Qualified Trafficking in Persons, sentencing them to life imprisonment, with a ₱2 million "fine" imposed on each (IAG / GMA / Inquirer / Philstar / CNN, 2025-11-20). (Corrected and supplemented in the 2026-08-26 verification pass. The prior version had called it a "₱2 million compensation payment," but reporting shows this was a fine imposed on each defendant, and separately, compensating trafficking victims is a distinct matter. Also, the branch number, judge's name, and length of the decision, which the prior version had flagged as "primary source not reached," have been filled in from reporting.) 注 Note on the sentence name: PAOCC initially announced "reclusion perpetua," but the decision itself imposes life imprisonment. Since human trafficking is a special-law offense, life imprisonment (with no fixed term) applies, which is a different sentence from reclusion perpetua (20–40 years plus accessory penalties) imposed for crimes under the Revised Penal Code (Philstar, 2025-11-20). Five co-defendants were acquitted. Guo was transferred to CIW-Mandaluyong (a women's correctional facility), while the co-defendants were transferred to the NBP |
| Same day | The forfeiture of 7.9 ha of land registered to BAOFU Land Development Inc. was also ordered (basis: "these lands and buildings were used as a means of carrying out labor trafficking"). It also ordered the permanent revocation of the corporate registration of Baofu Land Development Inc., Hongsheng Gaming Technology Inc., and Zun Yuan Technology Inc. 注The valuation differs by source: ₱3.9 billion (US$66 million) per some outlets (Daily Tribune, 2025-11-21 / IAG, 2025-11-20), and ₱6 billion per others (GMA, 2025-11-20). Neither figure should be treated as definitive on its own (revised to present both figures in the 2026-08-26 verification pass). Note that a separate 2.87-ha parcel also registered to Baofu, 58 vehicles, and ₱7.9 million in cash, among other assets, were not forfeited |
| November 20, 2025 | Philstar reported this as the first conviction under the "organizing trafficking" provision |
| Early August 2026 | The BIR (Bureau of Internal Revenue) filed criminal tax-evasion charges with the DOJ against Hongsheng Gaming Technology Ltd., in which Guo had once been a listed owner, over ₱2.23 billion (US$36.2 million) in unpaid taxes — comprising corporate income tax, VAT, and withholding tax on employees (IAG, 2026-08-21) |
| — | 注 BAOFU co-founder Huang Zhiyang remains at large. Last confirmed located in Hong Kong in September 2024 |
注 Misinformation about the timing of the raid circulates. The Bamban, Tarlac raid occurred on March 13, 2024, not in May. May–June was when Guo's Senate testimony and the controversy over her identity blew up, and this period is often confused with the raid itself.
注 On land area as well: the Zun Yuan facility is reported as "36 buildings on roughly 10 ha," while the forfeited land is "7.9 ha." The full site and the forfeited parcel are separate concepts and should not be conflated.
注A large number of foreign reports place the raid in "June 2024." (For example, CNN and Rappler's English-language articles refer to "the June 2024 raid on a POGO hub in Guo's town.") This is a mix-up with the separate Lucky South 99 raid in Porac, Pampanga Province on June 4–5 of the same year. Zun Yuan/Bamban was March 13, 2024. The rescued headcount also differs by source and moved over time: Bamban was 875 (the official PAOCC/PNA figure), while Inquirer reported "371 Filipinos + 497 foreigners = 868," SunStar reported "nearly 900," and Rappler's first report said "408." Porac was a separate case with separate numbers: 187 people (158 foreigners + 29 Filipinos) (added in the 2026-08-26 verification pass).
注 Primary source not reached (remaining) — the Pasig RTC's decision itself (case number, full text) could not be accessed. The 2026-08-26 verification pass confirmed, from reporting (Philstar, GMA, Daily Tribune, IAG, 2025-11-20 to 21), that the court = Pasig RTC Branch 167 / judge = Annielyn Medes-Cabelis / length of decision = 111 pages. The figures remain report-based.
6. The Economic Impact — Office and Residential Markets
6-1. The Office Market
| Indicator | Figure | Timing / source |
|---|---|---|
| Metro Manila vacancy rate | 19% (flat quarter-on-quarter) | Colliers Q2 2026 |
| Leasing activity | Down 24% quarter-on-quarter (decision-making delayed by geopolitical uncertainty) | Colliers Q2 2026 |
| Green-certified property share | 68% of all H1 2026 transactions | Colliers Q2 2026 |
| Flexible office space | Take-up doubled year-on-year | Colliers Q2 2026 |
| Policy factor | Administrative Order No. 45 is expected to expand PEZA-accredited office stock, spurring IT-BPM demand | Colliers Q2 2026 |
It is the IT-BPM (BPO) sector that filled the space POGO vacated. Leechiu Property Consultants said in April 2025 that "the IT and outsourcing sector is driving an office-market recovery despite POGO's exit," and in July 2025 called it "the strongest leasing surge since the pandemic" (InsiderPH, 2025-04-17 / 2025-07-10).
注 Still, a 19% vacancy rate remains elevated, so it cannot be said that "BPO absorbed the space completely." 注 Primary source not reached — this article could not access the original real estate consultants' reports for the square-meter figure of the office space POGO returned to the market. Circulating figures such as "1 million sqm" have not been substantiated.
6-2. The Condominium Market — Where the Wound Runs Deeper
| Indicator | Figure | Source |
|---|---|---|
| Metro Manila residential vacancy rate | 25.6% projected by end-2026 (an all-time high) | Colliers Q1 2026 |
| Bay Area vacancy rate | Projected to rise to nearly 60% | Colliers Q1 2026 |
| 2026 new completions | About 13,000 units (nearly double 2025), concentrated in the C5 Corridor and Bay Area | Colliers Q1 2026 |
| Rents | Projected to be nearly flat through 2026 | Colliers Q1 2026 |
| Pre-selling net absorption | +765% year-on-year in Q1 2026 (driven by flexible payment terms in affordable price tiers) | Colliers Q1 2026 |
The Bay Area's nearly-60% vacancy rate most vividly captures the economic cost of the POGO ban. The Bay Area (Manila Bay coast / Pasay-Parañaque), adjacent to Entertainment City, saw a construction boom driven by housing demand from POGO employees. 注 It should also be accurately reported that Colliers' Q1 2026 report does not directly name POGO's exit as the cause — oversupply, high interest rates, inflation, and geopolitical uncertainty are cited alongside it.
6-3. Effect on International Standing
On February 21, 2025, the FATF (Financial Action Task Force) removed the Philippines from "increased monitoring" (the grey list). FATF's own text stated, "The Philippines has completed their Action Plan to resolve the identified strategic deficiencies within agreed timeframes and will no longer be subject to the FATF's increased monitoring process," attributing the removal to a successful on-site visit (FATF, Paris, February 21, 2025). Improved anti-money-laundering measures in the casino sector are cited as one factor in the assessment (IAG, 2026-02-26).
7. The Reality of Illegal Operations That Persist After the Ban
Every license has vanished, but the business has not. As of March 2025, PAGCOR stated plainly that "all licenses have been revoked, but illegal POGOs still exist" (PNA, 2025-03-04).
7-1. Continued Raids (Confirmed Cases)
| Date | Location | Content | Source |
|---|---|---|---|
| January 18–20, 2025 | Parañaque | 32 foreigners arrested | PNA / Inquirer, 2025-01 |
| February 15, 2025 | — | PAOCC rescues 35 foreigners from an illegal POGO | Philstar, 2025-02-15 |
| February 22, 2025 | — | "PAOCC continues large-scale raids even after the ban" | Inquirer, 2025-02-22 |
| February 26, 2025 | Pasay | Over 400 POGO workers detained | Various outlets, 2025-02-26 |
| March 4, 2025 | — | PAOCC: "some POGO bosses remain in the country" | Inquirer, 2025-03-04 |
| March 9, 2025 | — | Inquest proceedings begin for 549 foreigners detained in POGO raids | Inquirer, 2025-03-09 |
| March 15–16, 2025 | Pasay | 49 foreigners arrested | Asia Gaming Brief, 2025-03-16 |
| March 19, 2025 | Makati, RCBC Plaza | A hub inside an office building is raided | Rappler, 2025-03-19 |
| August 13–14, 2025 | Davao City | The NBI arrests and charges 8 Chinese nationals | Inquirer / MindaNews, 2025-08 |
| December 8, 2025 | Nationwide | The PNP chief orders stepped-up anti-POGO operations | Manila Bulletin, 2025-12-08 |
| March 26, 2026 | Parañaque | The CIDG raids an online-scam hub, arresting 14 and rescuing 1 minor | DZRH, 2026-03-26 |
| April 24, 2026 | Nationwide | The PNP endorses the unified "Laban kontra POGO" procedure | Manila Bulletin, 2026-04-24 |
| May 26, 2026 | Pasig | A scam hub posing as a trading platform is raided, 63 arrested | Inquirer, 2026-05-26 |
| June 2, 2026 | — | Arrests made over trafficking victims to a scam hub in Cambodia | Inquirer, 2026-06-02 |
7-2. What's Actually Happening
- "Evolution" and "relocation abroad" — Manila Bulletin reported on July 17, 2026, "Cyber scams evolve as syndicates outmaneuver Marcos POGO ban." The June 2026 Cambodia trafficking case suggests hubs are moving offshore, with the Philippines increasingly becoming a supply-side country (a source of trafficking victims).
- Downsizing and dispersal — A Senate committee report warned in February 2025 of POGO's "evolution" (PNA, 2025-02-04). PAOCC said starting in 2025 it would target "small-scale" POGOs (Philstar, 2024-12-31). The South China Morning Post reported in February 2025 on concerns that scam operations were becoming a "cottage industry."
- Disguising as BPOs — A "POGO hub disguised as a BPO" was raided in Bataan Province in November 2024 (Bilyonaryo, 2024-11-01). Senator Risa Hontiveros had already warned of "rebranding" before the ban took effect (GMA, 2024-09-02).
- Hiding in downtown office buildings — Cases have emerged of hubs operating inside Grade-A office towers, as with Makati's RCBC Plaza (March 2025).
These crime types are not simple illegal gambling but a composite of human trafficking, unlawful detention, torture, crypto scams (so-called "pig-butchering"), and money laundering. The Zun Yuan/Bamban case is the archetype, and the verdict treated all of these as a single whole (IAG, 2025-11-20).
8. Summary — The State of Play as of August 2026
| Area | Figures showing where things stand |
|---|---|
| Industry GGR | 2025: ₱396.1B (all-time high) → Q2 2026: a sharp -20.33% deceleration |
| Change of driver | Brick-and-mortar casinos (EC/NCR) down 9.4% from 2024 to 2025, eGames up 36.5% |
| Main culprit in 2026 | The BSP's e-wallet decoupling cut gaming activity by about -40% (per the PAGCOR Chairman) |
| PAGCOR finances | H1 2026 net income -85.29% (hit directly by the ₱37 billion PSC debt) |
| Privatization | Awaiting the EO. EO within 2026 → completion targeted for 2028 |
| POGO | Permanently outlawed by RA 12312; RA 11590 also repealed — the "regulate and tax it" path is closed |
| Real estate | Office vacancy 19%; Bay Area condo vacancy heading toward nearly 60% by end-2026 |
| Public security | Zero licenses remain, but raids continued into 2026. Hubs are downsizing, disguising themselves, and moving offshore |
If the 2024 policy shift must be summed up in one line, it is this: "a wager that traded ₱23 billion a year in tax revenue and 63,000 jobs to try to buy back the country's reputation (exiting the FATF grey list) and its public security." The FATF delisting materialized in February 2025. But the criminal networks did not disappear — they changed shape — and the damage to real estate markets continued into 2026. And ironically, what hurt PAGCOR most in 2026 was not the POGO ban but its own central bank's regulation of domestic online gambling (eGames).
Key Sources
Primary sources - LawPhil Project: RA 9487 (approved 2007-06-20) / RA 11590 (approved 2021-09-22, date confirmed 2026-08-26) / RA 12312, "Anti-POGO Act of 2025" (approved 2025-10-23) / Executive Order No. 74, s.2024 (signed 2024-11-05) - Chan Robles Virtual Law Library: Presidential Decree No. 1869 (Sec. 9 / Sec. 12 / Sec. 13(2)(a)) - PAGCOR, "2024 Philippine Gaming Industry Data" / "2025 Philippine Gaming Industry Data" (https://www.pagcor.ph/regulatory/industry_statistic.php) - PAGCOR 2023 Annual Report (https://www.pagcor.ph/annual-reports/pagcor-annual-report-2023.pdf) - PAGCOR official releases: H1 2026 results (2026-07-30) / Q2 2026 industry statistics / advertising-replacement order (2026-06-17) / 2025 dividend of ₱5.67B (2026-07-10) - FATF, "Outcomes FATF Plenary, February 2025" (2025-02-21, Paris)
Secondary sources - Inside Asian Gaming (asgam.com): 2024-07-24 / 2024-12-18 / 2023-11-27 / 2025-11-20 / 2026-02-26 / 2026-07-19 / 2026-08-21 / 2026-08-25, among others - Colliers Philippines: Property Market Report — Office Q2 2026 / Residential Q1 2026 - Inquirer.net, Philstar.com, Rappler, Manila Bulletin, GMA Network, Philippine News Agency, Focus Gaming News, Asia Gaming Brief, MindaNews, South China Morning Post, Al Jazeera (dates for individual articles are given in the text)
注 Items this article explicitly flags as "primary source not reached": ① the original PAGCOR regulation establishing the POGO system in 2016; ② the full text and G.R. number of the Supreme Court resolution in the Okada Manila case; ③ the Pasig RTC's decision text in the Alice Guo case; ④ measured figures for the office floor space POGO returned to the market; ⑤ facility-level GGR for Cebu's IRs; ⑥ the original UNODC report on Southeast Asian scam hubs. The figures in the text on these points should not be treated as definitive.
日本語の詳細版: 分野「産業・経済」「フィリピンのカジノ・IR産業とPOGO」(本サイト日本語版)。